009
FXUS63 KSGF 200435
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A LOW CHANCE
(5%) FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, WITH THE
PRIMARY RISK BEING QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN, AS SEEN
WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). DEWPOINTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO PUSH 60 TODAY, KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK
AROUND 100, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 100 WHERE DEWPOINTS
GET INTO LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. OTHERWISE, MINIMAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING, WITH NO PLANS
TO EXTEND HEADLINES BEYOND INTO SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, FIRE WEATHER REMAINS ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING TO
AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE VICINITY OF BREEZY AND HOT
CONDITIONS. THIS IS OF GREATEST CONCERN IN THE GRASSLANDS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, IN ADDITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FIRST LOOK AT RAIN CHANCES
(30-60%) GLANCE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND WEST CENTRAL MO
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY,
THOUGH A STRONG ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SUNDAY-MONDAY:
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
WILL BE ON INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. THE ENVIRONMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG) OVERLAYING MEDIOCRE
SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS). THIS WOULD SUGGEST SINGLE CELLS TO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS BEING THE FAVORED STORM MODE, WITH A LOW
CHANCE (5%) FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS
IS CAPTURED IN THE SPC MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE OUTLOOK ON
SUNDAY. PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. HOWEVER, MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. FROM A COVERAGE STANDPOINT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED TO A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44, BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO A TENTH OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN MO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
WITH COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY SUPPORT LOWER POPS
IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES IF THE TREND CONTINUES. NONETHELESS,
THE LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPROVE WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
ON MONDAY, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN A
COOLER AIRMASS AFTER A HOT SEPTEMBER THUS FAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 70S, WHICH IS NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. A SLIGHT TREND UP INTO LATE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WELCOMING TO THE AREA AFTER A FEW WEEKS
OF HOT WEATHER. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND
MONDAY. THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL SUPPORT WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND A POTENTIAL EARLY ONSET OF FALL FIRE
WEATHER SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HOWEVER
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS BOTH
IN THE MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING AT THE SITES. CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING REMAINS LOW WITH ADDITIONAL
UPDATES LIKELY. THERE IS A TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY MORNING COULD FEATURE BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
AT JLN AND SGF AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH HOWEVER GIVEN
THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THIS HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A
PREVAILING LINE FOR THIS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954
KVIH: 100/1954
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KJLN: 99/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 19:
KSGF: 73/1931
KJLN: 77/2005
KUNO: 71/2018
KVIH: 74/1978
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 74/2018
KJLN: 75/1980
KUNO: 74/2018
KVIH: 73/2018
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page