903
FXUS63 KSGF 200821
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (40-80%) TODAY INTO
TOMORROW, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
- SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60
MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SPC MAINTAINED MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEGINNING
TUESDAY, WITH SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS & SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO BE
MEANINGFULLY DISLODGED, WITH A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SENDING SEVERAL ANTECEDENT SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NW MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHERE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
OBSERVED ON 1:30 AM REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO VISIBLE ON
OVERNIGHT RADAR IMAGERY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS RACED
AHEAD OF A COMPLEX NEAR KANSAS CITY TO THE EDGE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL SOUTH, PROVIDING A STABILIZING
EFFECT THAT WILL MITIGATE ANY SHOWER OR STORM POTENTIAL BEFORE
SUNRISE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE OUTFLOW SEEMS TO BE MORE
DIFFUSE MOVING INTO KANSAS, SO THE STORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE
SECONDARY LOW/COLD FRONT SEGMENT IN KANSAS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MAKING IT INTO OUR KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
COUNTIES. THE LONGEVITY/PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY THE STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ, BUT
MANY 00Z CAMS MAINTAINED YESTERDAY'S TRENDS INSISTING THAT
STORMS WOULD FALL APART AS THEY REACHED THE EDGES OF OUR CWA.
THROUGH 8-9AM THIS MORNING, HIGHEST POPS (40-60%) REMAIN
CONSTRICTED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
COUNTIES, WITH BROKEN, DECAYING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
NEARLY COMPLETELY AFTER 9AM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING:
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, ACTING AS A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH
COVERAGE APPEARING TO EVEN REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONCE
STORMS DO RE-INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THIS MORNING WILL BE A MECHANISM TO MONITOR AS AN ADDITIONAL
SOURCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONT.
DESPITE EVENING CAM RUNS SUGGESTING LIMITED INITIATION,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH 1000-2500
J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG THE FRONT (DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL OF CHOICE). THE RAP GOES AS FAR AS TO SUGGEST AREAS WITH
35-45KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 8-9PM TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IF A DEEP UPDRAFT OR TWO
COULD BECOME ROOTED, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER
STORM. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLED ALONG
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AS IT TRAIPSES EAST, SUGGESTING THAT
CLUSTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY, WHILE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS INITIATE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 90S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44. THIS
MAY ALSO INFLUENCE ISOLATED CELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE ACTIVITY
STILL REMAINS ON THE TABLE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS, THOUGH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50-60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN
FOR THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
RAIN LINGERS INTO MONDAY:
POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER DARK AND EVEN
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH 30-70% POPS ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN
12AM AND 7AM ON MONDAY. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK ON
MONDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES FULLY OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BEST RAIN
CHANCES ARE NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, 30-50%
CHANCES REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS:
NOT GOING TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS, UNFORTUNATELY.
IT'S ACTUALLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-44, GET NO RAIN AT ALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO THE SCATTERED, BROKEN NATURE OF STORM COVERAGE. WITH PW
VALUES 1.6-1.7" ALONG THE FRONT, VERY SMALL BULLSEYES OF 1.5+
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS, BUT
WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE. MOST AREAS HAVE A >60%
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 0.25" THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NBM, BUT THE HREF IS FAR MORE CONSERVATIVE AND KEEPS >0.25"
CHANCES TO 30% OR LESS SOUTH OF I-44 (THOUGH THIS MAY BE AN
ARTIFACT FROM HOW DRY THE 00Z CAMS CAME IN).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY, AND IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AS A
RESULT. HIGHS TUESDAY-FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER, AND IN THE LOW TO MID-70S
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EVEN DROP INTO
THE MID- TO LOW 50S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, WITH THE
LOWER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN OZARKS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 50
DEGREES OVERNIGHT THIS WEEK! THE AIR MASS THAT SETTLES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WON'T BE OVERLY DRY EITHER, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
AFTERNOON RHS FROM DROPPING BELOW 40% IN THE AFTERNOONS MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK AS WELL.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT OUR REGION SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE HEART OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES STABLE THROUGH
THE WEEK, RATHER THAN THE WARMING TREND WE OFTEN SEE WHEN
RIDGING PUTS US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THIS DOES MEAN
THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER WORSENING OF
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY HOWEVER
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS BOTH
IN THE MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING AT THE SITES. CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING REMAINS LOW WITH ADDITIONAL
UPDATES LIKELY. THERE IS A TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY MORNING COULD FEATURE BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
AT JLN AND SGF AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH HOWEVER GIVEN
THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THIS HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A
PREVAILING LINE FOR THIS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KJLN: 99/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 74/2018
KJLN: 75/1980
KUNO: 74/2018
KVIH: 73/2018
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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