353
FXUS63 KSGF 210511
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (40-80%) OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
- SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC MAINTAINED
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEGINNING
TUESDAY, WITH SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS HELPING TO SPARK CONVECTION ALONG THE
INCOMING FRONT OVER SE KS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS A VORT MAX SITUATED OVER SE KS/SW MO WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, EVEN THOUGH
A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) IS DRAPED ENTIRELY OVER MOST OF OUR AREA.
THIS SE KS/SW MO AREA IS ALSO WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE THE HIGHEST
AT 68 F AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE AT 7-8 C/KM AND AMPLE
MUCAPE IS PRESENT AT 2000-3000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
SUFFICIENT AROUND 30 KNOTS. BIGGEST THREATS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, QUARTER SIZED HAIL, AND 60 MPH
WINDS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DECREASES FURTHER EAST WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S WHERE DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN MO. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSTY NEAR 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST NEAR MIDNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE COLD AIR WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED AFTER THE SUMMER WE'VE HAD.
THOUGH, IT'LL TAKE A BIT FOR IT TO GET HERE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REALLY START TO FEEL COOLER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THOUGH,
THIS WILL BE MORE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS
WILL FINALLY DIP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT MAKING THE
EVENINGS/MORNINGS FEEL NICE IN COOL AS TEMPERATURES SIT IN THE
50S AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND KEEPS THESE TEMPERATURES
AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
TO END THE WEEK WITH RAIN RETURNING THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
10Z, ESPECIALLY AT SGF AND JLN. SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AROUND
1KFT ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGEVITY
OF IFR CEILINGS IS LOW. BRIEF MVFR VIS (2-5SM) WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT TIMES AT JLN AND SGF. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A FRONT THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH. HAVE KEPT
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER AN
AMENDMENT AT BBG MAY BE NEEDED IF THE ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MAKES IT FARTHER NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS CEILINGS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND
4-5KFT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KJLN: 99/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 74/2018
KJLN: 75/1980
KUNO: 74/2018
KVIH: 73/2018
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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