291
FXUS63 KSGF 211120
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (40-80%) OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEGINNING
TUESDAY, WITH SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS & SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
230 AM THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ON RADAR. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT LAGS FAR BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE
500MB CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COOLER
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION AND REACHES SATURATION AND
WINDS BEGIN TO CALM.
RAIN CHANCES REST OF TODAY:
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN OZARKS
BY LATE MORNING, AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT THE AREA
WITH IT. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD INTO
THE MIDWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SENDING ADDITIONAL WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK, INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN
THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH, WHICH COULD ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING (15-35% CHANCES). SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP CONDITIONS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM MID-70S IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO MID-80S IN FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S WILL BE NEAR/AT SATURATION,
SO ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL POP-UP SHOWERS/STORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY,
BUT CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT LOCALLY 10-20% DUE TO OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL STALL AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT
WAS FLATTENED BY THIS WEEKEND'S SHORTWAVE INTRUSION WILL BUILD
BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE BETWEEN NOW
AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS A LITTLE MESSY
BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY LATER
IN THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO WHAT HAPPENS AS VARIOUS OPEN WAVES
ARE ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR JET, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT
BIG TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST LATER THIS WEEK AND
BEGIN DE-AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE, WITH A RETURN OF 15-30% POPS TO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHEN THE
RIDGE DOES START GETTING BROKEN DOWN LATER THIS WEEK, OUR NEXT
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RETURN, BUT MUCH STILL TBD WITH RESPECT TO
WHEN AND WHETHER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURE SPREADS BEGIN
TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN IFR/LIFR THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HEIGHTS INCREASE INTO MVFR AROUND 18Z AND REACH VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 20Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO IFR/LIFR AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 10Z. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...SORIA
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