075
FXUS63 KSGF 070521
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20-35% RANGE HOWEVER
LIGHT WINDS (GUSTS LESS THAN 15MPH) WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT LIMITED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
AT 1245 PM, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS
RANGED FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
PERHAPS BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES BELOW 20% IN SPOTS -
LOWEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. WHILE THIS WILL MAKE FOR EASIER FIRE
STARTS, WINDS, REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH, WILL LIMIT
FIRE DANGER ON THE WHOLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S LATER THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AFTER SUNSET AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF CLOUDS FAVOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION TOMORROW, WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF)
SYSTEM MEAN BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 17-18 DEGC RANGE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DURING THE AFTERNOON WE'LL MIX INTO
THIS WARM LAYER TO BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. MEANWHILE, A DECAYING COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER IOWA THE LOCAL AREA WILL SEE A RETURN TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WHICH MAY KEEP IT SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AFTERNOON -
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60. FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THE UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH WILL SURGE BACK NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONSEQUENTLY OVERTAKES THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO HANDLE PHASING BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF
ARKLATEX AND A TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF. SPAGHETTI PLOTS FROM VARIOUS HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST INVEST
92L, WHICH THE NHC GIVES NEARLY 100% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE GETTING LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE TRACK TO OUR EAST, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER WE'LL SEE (AND IF
SO, THEN HOW MUCH) RAINFALL FROM THIS FEATURE, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) RANGE FROM
LESS THAN 5% ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI TO 40% ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 63.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND RETURN BACK TO VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...SORIA
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