459
FXUS63 KSGF 090308
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1008 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS.
- DRY AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
FIRE STARTS, BUT WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH SHOULD LIMIT
FIRE SPREAD DANGER. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BARELY CHANGED IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. A BROAD AND ENERGETIC TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH VERY WEAK MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CONUS. A SEPARATE, RATHER
STATIONARY, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH/UPPER-LOW IS NOTED OVER TEXAS
VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THEN, HURRICANE ISAIAS IS STILL
SPINNING IN THE GULF, WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS FANNING UP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT STARTS TO MERGE WITH THE WAVE OVER TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EDGE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKED BY THE JET STREAM IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS HAS NOT TAMPERED MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY, BUT QUITE DRY
AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING INTO OUR
CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES. CURRENT OBS SHOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20% IN THE ROLLAY-VICHY AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH AS
HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHES THE GULF SHORE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS IN TEXAS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
OZARKS, PLACING US IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW,
CONTINUING TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER
MILD IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN.
THIS WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS IN PLACE, NOTABLY AN 86 F
RECORD HIGH AT ROLLA-VICHY, A 90 F RECORD HIGH AT WEST PLAINS,
AND A 92 F HIGH AT SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN. THE NBM GIVES A
10-30% CHANCE FOR THE SPRINGFIELD/JOPLIN/WEST PLAINS RECORDS TO
BE BROKEN, AND A 92-98% CHANCE OF THE ROLLA-VICHY RECORD TO BE
BROKEN.
DRY AIR AND FUELS MAY INCREASE FIRE START DANGER:
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR HAS EXPANDED SEVERE (D3 OUT OF 4)
DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AREA. SEVERE
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS GRASSES AND
FOLIAGE DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS, PAIRED WITH THE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TANKING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE, WILL PROMOTE A FIRE START RISK.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE AIR AND FUELS ARE DRIEST, WHICH
IS GENERALLY ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAK FRONT HANGS AROUND THE REGION, BUT IN GENERAL, SPEEDS
OF LESS THAN 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THIS WOULD LIMIT FIRE SPREAD
DANGER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY DUE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS:
COME THE WEEKEND, HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
THEN LIFT NE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, A SHARP CUTOFF
IN THE RAIN SHIELD IS FORECAST IN OUR EASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE,
SOME CLOUD COVER INCREASE IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPRINKLY, BRINGING
LITTLE RELIEF FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
AREAS THAT DON'T SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO STAY WELL-ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID-80S TO
LOWER 90S NORTHWEST OF I-44. THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE CLOUD COVER
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS WITHIN THE 70S.
ONCE ISAIAS EXITS EASTWARD, A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH AN
ENERGETIC JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND BORDERLINE HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. THE HOTTEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT FORECASTS
ARE IN THE LOWER 90S, SOME AREAS NEARING THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS
WILL SURELY CHALLENGE THE CURRENT RECORDS OF 87 AT WEST PLAINS,
90 AT ROLLA-VICHY, 93 AT JOPLIN, AND 91 AT SPRINGFIELD.
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY COME LATER
NEXT WEEK AS NBM SPREADS INCREASE DRASTICALLY. HOWEVER, NOT MUCH
STOCK CAN BE PUT INTO ANY ONE SCENARIO DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
INCOMING PATTERN. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S COULD CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, OR DROP TO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN 20-40% RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD IN
HOW SYSTEMS OVER THE PACIFIC WILL INTERACT NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL, CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN, IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, MERGING WITH A
POLAR JET STREAM TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY IS THEN
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEK, WHICH BRINGS US OUR NEXT 20-40% RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THAT SAID, LREF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN ONCE RACHEL GETS ABSORBED INTO THE JET
STREAM. THIS EVOLUTION IS MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN THAT GAVE US OUR
LAST RAIN CHANCES. ONE CLUSTER HAS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
BEING ABSORBED AND THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLUSTER HAS THE POLAR TROUGH
DETACH FROM THE JET STREAM, BECOME A CLOSED LOW, AND STAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FOR MUCH LONGER.
IF YOU RECALL FROM THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER, THE CLOSED LOW WAS
THE SCENARIO THAT PANNED OUT, AND SINCE MODELS DON'T HANDLE
CLOSED LOWS WELL, THE SYSTEM CONTINUOUSLY SLOWED DOWN, PUSHING
BACK RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A TREND IN LATER RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE FORWARD AND
BETTER RESOLVE THE FEATURES THAT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER.
TIME WILL TELL, BUT WHETHER ITS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OR AS LATE
AS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD BRING A
WAVE THROUGH SOMETIME, WHICH SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN AND BRING
SOME RAIN CHANCES--EVENTUALLY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT BUT A FEW GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 12KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...WISE
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