257
FXUS63 KSGF 091106
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS.
- DRY AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
FIRE STARTS, BUT WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH SHOULD LIMIT
FIRE SPREAD DANGER. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER AS THE DROUGHT
CONTINUES TO WORSEN AND MIN RH VALUES SIT IN THE 20-30% RANGE
TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR SATURDAY AND GUSTS
STAY NEAR 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS HAVE
SHIFTED FURTHER EAST. THERE STILL IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN,
BUT IT'LL LIKELY FALL OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND STAY MOSTLY OUT OF
OUR AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS KEEPS MOST OF THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS FURTHER EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AND IT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE SIMON OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BRING US OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE HURRICANE SIMON
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE WEST SIDE OF MEXICO AND SEEMINGLY GETS
STRUNG OUT DUE TO OUR RIDGE. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON ARE
FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE RIDGE AND MOVE RIGHT THROUGH
SOUTHERN MO. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES AT 30-60% ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER CENTRAL MO. THEN, LARGE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND BRING MORE RAIN AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THANKS TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOSE RAIN CHANCES STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY
WHEN THEY START TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.
THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY UP TO 25 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, THE AIR MASS WILL START TO FEEL
DIFFERENT AS DEWPOINTS DROP BY ALMOST 20 DEGREES AND WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY. HIGHS FOR NEXT FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, THIS IS A LONG TERM FORECAST AND THESE
NUMBERS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FOR SPRINGFIELD FOR FRIDAY IS 65 TO 78 DEGREES. WITH THIS LARGE
OF A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF OVER 10 DEGREES, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS AIR MASS BEHAVES
AS WE GET CLOSER. THOUGH, HAVING A HIGH TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 90
DEGREES IS A WELCOME CHANGE AND THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION HOPEFULLY
KEEPS ITSELF TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING US A TASTE OF FALL
BY NEXT WEEKEND!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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