823
FXUS63 KSGF 100327
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS.
- DRY AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
FIRE STARTS. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING TIMING AND SYSTEM
EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHEAST, WITH AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LOW AND SUBSEQUENT TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST. RIDGING IS NOTED IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS,
WITH WEAK MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY,
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GULF COAST JUST SOUTH OF
MS/AL AS IT CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION TODAY, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA, AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1230 PM, OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS, AND UP TO 90
DEGREES/THE LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. THIS APPROACHES THE RECORD HIGHS
AT THE CLIMATE SITES (RECORDS ARE: SPRINGFIELD/JOPLIN: 92 ,
WEST PLAINS: 90 , VICHY/ROLLA: 86), HOWEVER MOST SHOULD STAY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
VICHY/ROLLA, SO WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING OBSERVATIONS
TO SEE IF WE CAN BREAK THE RECORD.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
BEEN IN THE 30-40% RANGE SO FAR, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 25- 35% RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON (LOWEST VALUES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65). WITH SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10MPH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 10-15MPH, SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE, PRIMARILY WEST OF
I-49 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR TODAY THOUGH, THE LOWEST
RH VALUES DON'T ALIGN WELL WITH THE WIND GUSTS, SO THE FIRE
CONCERNS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.
FOR TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, HURRICANE ISAIAS IS PROGGED TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER AL/MS BEFORE WEAKENING AND PIVOTING NORTHWEST TOWARDS
NORTHERN MS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY, FURTHER WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MOST OF THE
HURRICANE REMNANTS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF <20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MO.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY, WITH
MINIMUM RHS IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, THIS AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MEANING
THAT WEATHER AND LAND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ERRATIC FIRE
SPREAD IF A FIRE WERE TO START. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-30MPH WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, WITH THE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHIFTING EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE THE LOWEST
RHS (25-30%) RESIDE.
LOOKING BACK AT THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS FOR THIS WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK,
HURRICANE SIMON WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
MEXICO, WITH TROPICAL STORM RACHEL PROGGED TO PIVOT NORTHEAST ONTO
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CA. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE INGESTING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL AND PIVOTING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. THIS IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TREKKING TOWARDS THE AREA, BRINGING OUR NEXT
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING (30-60%), WITH THE
BEST CHANCES (45-75%) ON WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY (40-
60%) BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE PATTERN'S OVERALL
EVOLUTION AND TIMING, SO EXPECT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 IN A DAY 6 (WEDNESDAY)
15% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AGAIN, THIS WILL LARGELY BE IMPACTED BY
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST
MATURES AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERE RISK AND TIMING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN, DROPPING HIGHS BACK TO
NEAR-SEASONAL ONCE IT PUSHES THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ISAIAS MAY IMPINGE UPON
EASTERN MISSOURI AFTER 12Z, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT
WILL VARY BETWEEN 150 TO 220 DEGREES THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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