433
FXUS63 KSGF 101101
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS.
- DRY AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
FIRE STARTS. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK;
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING TIMING AND SYSTEM
EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ISAIAS SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED SINCE IT HAS MADE LANDFALL.
WARM AND DRY TODAY:
PERSISTENCE FORECASTING WILL BE OF USE TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE PARENT AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY. THAT IS, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FROM THE
NBM INITIALIZATION, PUTTING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES AREAWIDE. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL
BE CAPTURING THE INFLUENCE (IF ANY) OF ISAIAS AS IT TRACKS NORTH
THROUGH ALABAMA BEFORE STEERING TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM WILL OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THE WESTERN CLOUD
SHIELD MAY IMPINGE UPON THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES, RESULTING IN HIGHS
AROUND 80 F. WHERE AND IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS PROMINENT (MOST
LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65), TEMPERATURES WILL REACH CLOSER TO 90
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HOT AND DRY EARLY WEEK:
ONCE ISAIAS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION, AND WITH IT, WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 18-20 DEG C
RANGE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
A LEE-LOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT TRANSITS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS;
HEDGING CLOSER TO THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 25
MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
65 CORRIDOR, AND AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 MPH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THESE BREEZY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE UNSEASONABLY HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE
COLLOCATED WITH THE AREA OF LOWEST RH. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE
LOWEST RHS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN OZARKS AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRODUCE
DRYING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE PLATEAU.
PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED FUEL
INFORMATION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID-WEEK:
THE QUIET PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME COMPLICATED RATHER QUICKLY AS
WE PROCEED INTO LATE TUESDAY AND THROUGH MID-WEEK THANKS TO A
PAIR OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DEPICT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SWEEPING THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN A STREAM OF RICH MOISTURE
CONTENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS THIS WAVE SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS, BUT THEY CAN ROUGHLY BE CATEGORIZED
INTO TWO GROUPS. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES DEPICT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH MISSOURI LATE
TUESDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT AND LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WHEN THE PARENT UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES
THAT LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THE
ALTERNATIVE IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION MORE QUICKLY, WINDING RAIN CHANCES DOWN THURSDAY
MORNING. A GLANCE AT NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES
DOES INDEED REVEAL A SIGNAL FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONVECTION
FORM. CURRENT NBM RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT (30-60%),
MAX OUT ON WEDNESDAY (50-75%), AND DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
(20-40%). FURTHERMORE, IF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, A
RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY BECOME APPARENT. GIVEN
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME, AND THESE DETAILS WILL
BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
IN SHORT, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT ALL PROMOTE RAIN
OF SOME SORT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MID-
WEEK, BUT IT IS JUST A MATTER OF HOW, IF, AND WHEN THESE
FEATURES CONVERGE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WE
EXPERIENCE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE WEEK, IF ONLY BRIEFLY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD FROM ISAIAS WILL PASS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH
BUT WILL VARY GENERALLY BETWEEN 150 TO 200 DEGREES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DEFICITS FROM LATE
SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID OCT 6 SHOWED A CONTINUED EXPANSION
OF THE D3 (EXTREME DROUGHT) AND AN OVERALL CATEGORICAL
DEGRADATION ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. RESULTANT
FUEL MOISTURE INDICES SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. WOODY FM READINGS
BETWEEN 60-70 AND HERB FM VALUES OF 30-60 SUGGEST THESE FUELS
ARE CURED OR VERY DRY. COMBINED, THESE PRODUCE A GROWING SEASON
INDEX (GSI) OF 0.1 TO 0.3, INDICATING FUEL DORMANCY.
FURTHERMORE, KBDI VALUES GREATER THAN 600 (AND IN SOME CASES
GREATER THAN 700) ALSO SUGGEST FUELS ARE NEAR OR COMPLETELY
CURED.
WHILE RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
MET IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WE WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN OUR FIRE
WEATHER SEASON MESSAGING, AND HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED SHOULD
RFW CRITERIA BE FORECAST FROM THIS POINT ONWARD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
OCTOBER 11:
KSGF: 91/1963
KJLN: 91/2020
KVIH: 92/1963
KUNO: 93/1963
OCTOBER 12:
KSGF: 91/2024
KJLN: 93/2024
KVIH: 90/2024
KUNO: 87/1975
OCTOBER 13:
KSGF: 88/2017
KJLN: 88/1952
KVIH: 88/1899
KUNO: 93/1989
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
FIRE WEATHER...DIDIO
CLIMATE...DIDIO
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