134
FXUS63 KSGF 120043
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
743 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HOT, DRY, AND
INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CONUS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
ISAIAS REMNANTS CONTINUE TO TRACK UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS TO OUR EAST, WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST/EASTERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, A MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN REGION AS IT BEGINS TO INGEST SOME POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEMS, COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOUD DECK.
WITH THE MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RISING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
NUDGING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 18-20C, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS,
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL COME CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW), SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW TEMPERATURES TREND OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MONDAY WILL BRING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES,
ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20-25MPH SO FAR THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AS
25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET STREAM FLOW HAS BEEN MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 30-40% RANGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THAT ARE EXPERIENCING THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL THANKFULLY NOT ALIGN WITH THE DRIEST AIR,
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE RHS IN THE 30-40% RANGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE HIGHWAY, RHS SHOULD DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20-30% RANGE, WITH WIND GUSTS REMAINING MINIMAL. AS A
RESULT, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE.
MONDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR SITUATION, HOWEVER HREF
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >30MPH INCREASE (50-75+%) AND
SPREAD EASTWARD PAST THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLAY FOR MONDAY, OVERSPREADING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED, A LACK OF SUFFICIENT RAINFALL HAS LED TO DRY AND
SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS - SEE THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS
ON FUEL INDEX INFORMATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING RECORD-CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE NBM
INTERQUARTILE SPREAD ONLY SHOWS A 4-DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES, LEADING TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN TEMPERATURES SURPASSING 90 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH RECORDS AT ALL CLIMATE SITES IN JEOPARDY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOSED LOW AND INGESTED TROPICAL
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE CONTENT BEGINNING TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE
CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN ENSEMBLES, THERE'S BEEN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE QPF
PROBABILITIES SINCE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT, WE'D SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAINFALL SPANNING ACROSS MULTIPLE DAYS. CURRENT NBM
24-HOUR QPF PROBABILITIES SHOWCASE THE FOLLOWING:
> 1": 55-85%
> 2": 35-65%
> 3": <30%
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT (20-50%), PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY (85-95%), CONTINUING ON THURSDAY (60-80%), BEFORE
DECREASING THURSDAY NIGHT (20-40%). THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A
SCENARIO WHERE THE SYSTEM STALLS OUT TO THE WEST, EFFECTIVELY
CANCELING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SO THE
POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW IT EVOLVES WILL BE PUT UNDER
INTENSE SCRUTINY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
IDEA OF HOW IT WILL EVOLVE.
ANOTHER AREA WE'RE MONITORING IS THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
WITH THE WARM AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S,
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER SW KS/WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE, HOWEVER AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO OUR
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. SPC
HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, SO WE'LL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY
A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS COMES
FROM 35-45 KT LLWS WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 09-14Z. THIS
WILL PRECEDE INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS AFTER 14Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DEFICITS FROM LATE
SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID OCT 6 SHOWED A CONTINUED EXPANSION
OF THE D3 (EXTREME DROUGHT) AND AN OVERALL CATEGORICAL
DEGRADATION ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. RESULTANT
FUEL MOISTURE INDICES SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. WOODY FM READINGS
BETWEEN 60-70 AND HERB FM VALUES OF 30-60 SUGGEST THESE FUELS
ARE CURED OR VERY DRY. COMBINED, THESE PRODUCE A GROWING SEASON
INDEX (GSI) OF 0.1 TO 0.3, INDICATING FUEL DORMANCY.
FURTHERMORE, KBDI VALUES GREATER THAN 600 (AND IN SOME CASES
GREATER THAN 700) ALSO SUGGEST FUELS ARE NEAR OR COMPLETELY
CURED.
WHILE RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
MET IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WE WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN OUR FIRE
WEATHER SEASON MESSAGING, AND HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED SHOULD
RFW CRITERIA BE FORECAST FROM THIS POINT ONWARD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
OCTOBER 11:
KSGF: 91/1963
KJLN: 91/2020
KVIH: 92/1963
KUNO: 93/1963
OCTOBER 12:
KSGF: 91/2024
KJLN: 93/2024
KVIH: 90/2024
KUNO: 87/1975
OCTOBER 13:
KSGF: 88/2017
KJLN: 88/1952
KVIH: 88/1899
KUNO: 93/1989
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...PRICE
FIRE WEATHER...DIDIO
CLIMATE...DIDIO
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