178
FXUS63 KSGF 131015
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
- PATTERN CHANGE INCOMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE OVERVIEW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
TO THE WEST, UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WITHIN A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE A
LESS PROMINENT SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. OBSERVATIONS AS OF MIDNIGHT SHOW DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS, BUT THAT WILL BE QUICK TO CHANGE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
RECORD HEAT THIS AFTERNOON:
RISING HEIGHTS, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 19 TO 21 DEG C RANGE WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S F AREAWIDE. THIS ALONE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK SEVERAL DAILY RECORDS. FOR REFERENCE, THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE HIGH FOR SPRINGFIELD TODAY IS 72 DEGREES.
AS MENTIONED, HOWEVER, MORE HUMID AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA TODAY; RESULTANT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
UPPER 90S TO EVEN THE LOW 100S. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO THE
ISSUANCE OF A SHORT HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
ANOMALOUSNESS OF THIS MID-OCTOBER HEAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT
OF THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY
HOT TODAY.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS
EAST TODAY, RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN AHEAD OF IT.
MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS. ONCE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
DIURNAL HEATING ERODE THE CAP DURING THE AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE BETTER PARAMETER SPACE WILL LIE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI TONIGHT. A GLANCE AT REFS AND HREF 40 DBZ PAINTBALLS
SUGGESTS THAT IF THIS STRONGER ACTIVITY DOES INDEED SURVIVE INTO
OUR AREA, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE AFTER 10 PM. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WOULD BE A RISK OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITHIN ANY
ESTABLISHED COLD POOLS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH A SECONDARY
RISK OF SMALL HAIL. THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A PITTSBURG, KS TO ROLLA, MO LINE FOR TONIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. PERIODS OF WEAKENING AND RE-
STRENGTHENING ARE LIKELY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND GROWS. WHILE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY FOR MANY AREAS,
LOCATIONS THAT SEE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE--PERHAPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE CONVECTION'S LEADING EDGE--MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE, HOWEVER, IF EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPS THE ENVIRONMENT
WORKED OVER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT, EXPAND
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THEN WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NORTH OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ROUND, AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, WIDESPREAD 72-HR RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 3.00
INCHES ARE FORECAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE, FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS FALL BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1.25 INCHES. WITH FORECAST
PWATS EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND NEAR
DAILY RECORDS, MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING. ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GOOD RAINMAKERS, SO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST-MOST
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND MANY RIVERS IN OR NEAR
LOW FLOW, IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FLOODING, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RATES
EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR, THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR TRUE FLASH
FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, BOTH HREF AND REFS LPMM DEPICT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS WATCH CURRENTLY DOES NOT GO THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF RAINFALL EVENT, ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IS.
THE NEED FOR A POTENTIAL EXTENSION OR EXPANSION WILL BE RE-
EVALUATED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST PACKAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MUCH COOLER END OF WEEK:
A MUCH, MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. THE NBM HAS CLEARLY TRENDED TOWARD THE COLD END OF ITS
PREVIOUSLY-LARGE INTERQUARTILE RANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
NOW SHOWING ITS MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS VERIFY, THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE COLDER THAN MOST LOCATIONS' MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO A FROST RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD AT ENSEMBLES FOR NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, SHOWS THAT
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS A BUILDING RIDGE
BRINGS WARMER AIR RIGHT BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEAR 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY
REACHING THE TERMINALS BY THEN WAS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE
PREVAILING GROUP, SO HAVE OPTED TO PUT ANY LIGHTNING MENTION IN
A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DEFICITS FROM LATE
SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID OCT 6 SHOWED A CONTINUED EXPANSION
OF THE D3 (EXTREME DROUGHT) AND AN OVERALL CATEGORICAL
DEGRADATION ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. RESULTANT
FUEL MOISTURE INDICES SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. WOODY FM READINGS
BETWEEN 60-70 AND HERB FM VALUES OF 30-60 SUGGEST THESE FUELS
ARE CURED OR VERY DRY. COMBINED, THESE PRODUCE A GROWING SEASON
INDEX (GSI) OF 0.1 TO 0.3, INDICATING FUEL DORMANCY.
FURTHERMORE, KBDI VALUES GREATER THAN 600 (AND IN SOME CASES
GREATER THAN 700) ALSO SUGGEST FUELS ARE NEAR OR COMPLETELY
CURED.
WHILE RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
MET IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WE WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN OUR FIRE
WEATHER SEASON MESSAGING, AND HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED SHOULD
RFW CRITERIA BE FORECAST FROM THIS POINT ONWARD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
OCTOBER 12:
KSGF: 91/2024
KJLN: 93/2024
KVIH: 90/2024
KUNO: 87/1975
OCTOBER 13:
KSGF: 88/2017
KJLN: 88/1952
KVIH: 88/1899
KUNO: 93/1989
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ073.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ055-056-066-067.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
FIRE WEATHER...DIDIO
CLIMATE...DIDIO
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