571
FXUS64 KSJT 151737
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG, GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, CLEAR SKIES, AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
SET UP OVER OUR AREA, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES, BUT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. AT UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE WILL START SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAISE DEWPOINTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND FASTER WINDS WILL ALL HELP RAISE OUR LOWS BY AROUND 10
DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..STRONG STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY AS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN. OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. A DEEP TROUGH SHOULD RAPIDLY DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO
BEFORE IT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS, WITH MODELS SHOWING DEWPOINTS OF 55-65
DEGREES F. INSTABILITY VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW
THIS FEATURE EVOLVES AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SPC IS CURRENTLY CARRYING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE RAPIDLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT, THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD, WITH A 50KT MID-LEVEL JET
NOTED, THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR SOME HAIL AND BRIEF
TORNADOES TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS FOR SHIFTS IN TIMING AND/OR INTENSITY.
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND NEAR-SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE BREEZY
BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS,
THEY AGREE ON A SECOND COLD FRONT, THIS ONE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN,
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK AND COULD RESULT IN OUR FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS IT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LATE-WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
STRATUS RETURNS AROUND 12-13Z ALONG I-10 INCLUDING KSOA AND KJCT
AND KBBD, SCATTERING OUT MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
18-22KT RETURN MID MORNING AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION BREAKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 74 54 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 77 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 78 50 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 75 49 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 74 54 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 74 54 73 59 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 76 51 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page