923
FXUS64 KSJT 151921
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
121 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG, GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, CLEAR SKIES, AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
SET UP OVER OUR AREA, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES, BUT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. AT UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE WILL START SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAISE DEWPOINTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND FASTER WINDS WILL ALL HELP RAISE OUR LOWS BY AROUND 10
DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO, SOUTH OF ARIZONA, BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND EVEN APPROACHING
70 IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH APPROACH,
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OURS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR
AREA ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT, THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS),
WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, SOME
EMBEDDED CELLS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. FINALLY, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
BY MID MORNING MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT,
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH
THIS FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS NOW LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL TREND COLDER, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
STRATUS RETURNS AROUND 12-13Z ALONG I-10 INCLUDING KSOA AND KJCT
AND KBBD, SCATTERING OUT MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
18-22KT RETURN MID MORNING AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION BREAKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 54 75 57 73 / 0 0 0 50
SAN ANGELO 54 76 58 76 / 0 0 0 40
JUNCTION 50 78 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 49 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 30
SWEETWATER 54 75 58 70 / 0 0 0 60
OZONA 54 73 59 74 / 0 0 0 30
BRADY 51 76 58 79 / 0 0 0 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...04
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