316
FXUS64 KSJT 160919
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
319 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD BE
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG, GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM, MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF TO OUR WEST AND A SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL GET BREEZY AGAIN
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 MPH AROUND SUNSET. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE A BIT TODAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. INCREASED MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S) AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP LOWS EVEN WARMER FOR TOMORROW MORNING, PUTTING
THEM AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO, SOUTH OF ARIZONA, BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND EVEN APPROACHING
70 IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH APPROACH,
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OURS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. A LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR
AREA ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT, THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS),
WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, SOME
EMBEDDED CELLS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. FINALLY, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
BY MID MORNING MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT,
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH
THIS FRONT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS NOW LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL TREND COLDER, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS AROUND 12-13Z WITH WINDS COMING UP SLIGHTLY LATER
AT KJCT AROUND 17Z. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AROUND 12-13Z ALONG I-10
INCLUDING KSOA AND KJCT AND KBBD, AND POTENTIALLY AS NORTH AS
KSJT, SCATTERING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 74 58 72 55 / 0 0 50 100
SAN ANGELO 76 58 74 53 / 0 0 40 100
JUNCTION 77 56 79 55 / 0 0 10 90
BROWNWOOD 75 58 77 58 / 0 0 20 100
SWEETWATER 74 58 69 54 / 0 0 60 100
OZONA 73 59 72 52 / 0 0 30 90
BRADY 75 58 77 57 / 0 0 10 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...TP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page