111
FXUS64 KSJT 170321
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
921 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT, BUT
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAIN AREA OF STORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING, BUT A
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LIFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MEAGER SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. INCREASE POP VALUES FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF AN SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE LINE
WITH THIS IN MIND. AGAIN, THE MAIN ACTION WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, FLOODING, AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING, SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASE TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AS
STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LOW/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EL PASO REGION...MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AROUND 6 AM, AND SW OKLAHOMA NOON MONDAY.
A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS
700/850MB WINDS WILL BE BE 50 TO 60 KTS, AND ANY STORMS COULD
BRING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
ONE OR TWO TORNADOS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY IF LATER MODELS
INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SOILS ARE SATURATED IN
PORTIONS OF RUNNELS AND NORTHERN TOM GREEN COUNTIES FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL THIS MONTH.
WINDY WEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE 700 MB WIND MAX MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/MIDDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY
IN LOW LYING AREAS/VALLEYS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 847 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KJCT AND KBBD. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT KSJT AND KABI, WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 74 58 71 56 / 0 0 50 100
SAN ANGELO 76 58 73 53 / 0 0 50 100
JUNCTION 77 56 79 55 / 0 0 20 90
BROWNWOOD 75 58 76 58 / 0 0 20 90
SWEETWATER 74 58 68 54 / 0 0 70 100
OZONA 73 59 71 51 / 0 0 50 90
BRADY 75 57 76 57 / 0 10 20 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CALLAHAN-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-
THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...DANIELS
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