022
FXUS64 KSJT 171741
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1141 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 60S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS GULF MOISTURE WAS
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY LATE
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HI-
RES MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY.
LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH HELICITY VALUES OF 300-600
M2/S2. THIS IS WHEN THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. HI-RES
MODELS SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL BY SHOWING MORE INTENSE CELLS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS SHOULD INCREASE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TOWARDS SUNRISE, A PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH A QLCS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COULD PROVIDE ONE LAST
SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING IN OUR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT TO OUR
EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. STRONG
WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE (>70% CHANCE) THAT PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON, WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH BY SUNSET.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MORE
NORTHERLY, BRINGING COLD, DRY AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY AND LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND
OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR OUR CWA, BUT A FEW ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE
THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL VERY GRADUALLY
WARM AFTER WEDNESDAY, PUTTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AFTER
THE RAIN MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AT THE MOMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO AREAS WEST OF SAN ANGELO
AND ABILENE, ALTHOUGH HAVING ONLY LIMITED EFFECT ON TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL LOOKS A DEVELOPING QLCS
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AND SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH HIGH WINDS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN.
ONCE THE LINE PASSES THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING,
WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS LIKELY ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND MAYBE ABOVE 40 KNOTS FOR KSJT AND KABI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 72 54 69 48 / 40 100 20 0
SAN ANGELO 72 52 70 45 / 40 90 0 0
JUNCTION 77 54 72 44 / 10 90 30 0
BROWNWOOD 77 57 70 46 / 10 100 60 0
SWEETWATER 69 52 69 46 / 60 100 0 0
OZONA 70 51 70 45 / 40 90 0 0
BRADY 76 57 70 49 / 10 90 40 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CALLAHAN-COKE-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-
TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07
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