741
FXUS64 KSJT 180603
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS A LINE OF STORMS
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW THAT IS DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE
LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN IT'S WAKE. A
40-60KT JET IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE TODAY, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DUST IS LOFTED OVER
THE PERMIAN BASIN, THESE STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO STIR UP SOME
BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY AREAS LATER
TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY EVENING AND
ALLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD EASILY FALL TO THE MID 40S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
DRY AND GENERALLY NEAR-SEASONAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THAT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THIS ONE OF CANADIAN
ORIGIN, MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK AND COULD RESULT IN OUR FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE
STARTING TO TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MORNING. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO NEAR-
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.|
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES,
MAINLY KSJT AND KABI, OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LINE OF
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 69 48 70 37 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 70 45 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 72 45 76 38 / 30 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 70 46 73 39 / 60 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 68 47 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 70 45 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 70 49 73 40 / 40 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CALLAHAN-COKE-
FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-TAYLOR-
THROCKMORTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-
HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...DANIELS
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