556
FXUS64 KSJT 202040
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
240 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- WARMING TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
...A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AS IT HOLDS DIURNAL
HEATING BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED AREAS REACH FREEZING BRIEFLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND ESPECIALLY AREAS WHERE SOIL
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH. THE FREEZING CONDITIIONS TONIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT WIDESPREAD SO NO FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
AS A RESULT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE SEEN NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SINCE MARCH 2024.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW COMPARED TO THE BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A RATHER BENIGN LONG TERM FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS REGION. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS STAYING IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
EFFICIENT WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL BUILD IN BY SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD STAY PRETTY TAME WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING EVEN
FURTHER INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS CREATING A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY MONDAY WILL TAKE A BIT OF A HIT,
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES FURTHER
SOUTH HOLD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TAKE A BETTER HOLD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. TIMING ON THIS FRONT AND THE LEVEL OF IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FLUID OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT IN ANY
CASE, SLIGHTLY COOLER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 37 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 34 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 31 73 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 32 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 39 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 35 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 35 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...61
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