476
FGUS74 KSJT 191540
ESFSJT
TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-431-
441-451-201545-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
940 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS
RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SAN ANGELO, TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR
THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE CLEAR FORK OF THE BRAZOS RIVER NEAR
ROBY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 18 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THE ROBY FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 3.6 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 12/18/2024 - 03/18/2025
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
CLEAR FORK BRAZOS RIVER
ROBY 18.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 7.1 11.6
HAWLEY 14.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.9 5.2
NUGENT 18.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.8 3.4 5.1
FT GRIFFIN 35.0 5.7 5.7 6.4 7.5 8.2 9.0 9.9 11.7 14.1
CALIFORNIA CREEK
STAMFORD 28.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 9.0 14.0
HUBBARD CREEK
ALBANY 35.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.8 6.7 6.7 7.0 8.2 9.6
LAKE SWEETWATER
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2100.0 2100.0 2100.0 2100.0 2100.0 2100.0 2100.1 2100.1 2100.9
LAKE FT PHANTOM HILL
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1629.4 1629.4 1629.5 1629.6 1629.8 1630.1 1630.3 1630.6 1631.4
LAKE STAMFORD
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1416.2 1416.2 1416.2 1416.3 1416.3 1416.4 1416.4 1416.7 1416.9
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?SJT
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
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