131
FXUS64 KSJT 142032
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
232 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE BY
SUNDAY, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
OUR AREA WILL HAVE TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LIGHT
WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA THIS EARLY AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. GOING WITH LOWS
IN THE 27-30 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS
IN SOME OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHERE LOWS
SHOULD BE 30-34 DEGREES AND SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS. A RATHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO
WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS. WITH SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS, WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS, SET TO ENTER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GENERALLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BEYOND FRIDAY, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A LARGE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SENDING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR INTO TEXAS BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT, EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. WITH THAT IN MIND, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY FROM
THE NBM AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS INTO THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. A 1050+MB SURFACE HIGH IN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN U. S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
COLD SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST,
REINFORCING SURGES OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS AND OUR AREA.
HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S OR COLDER.
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR 24 TO 48 HOURS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME READINGS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY TO NEAR 0 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, WE WILL BE WATCHING THAT POTENTIAL
CLOSELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING AS COLD AS THEY WILL BE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 4-7 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PASSAGE OF
JUST A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH AT 3-5 KNOTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOME OF
OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHERE SOME CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES/CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 29 55 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 27 57 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 33 58 30 64 / 10 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 27 56 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 30 55 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 27 57 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 30 57 32 62 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19
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