483
FXUS64 KSJT 151002
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY.
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
IN PLACE BY SUNDAY, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK FRONT IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, LEAVING NORTH WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, MAKING WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SIT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS, WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS, SET TO ENTER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED IN REACH INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH ON FRIDAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A DEEP AND
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY. HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS COLD SURFACE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHEAST, A SERIES OF
REINFORCING SURGES OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND KEEP COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S OR COLDER. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 24 TO 48 HOURS
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO
DROP INTO THE TEENS BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY TO NEAR 0
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW WERE ADDED TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK CLOSELY, AND
WILL BE LOOKING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET HAS SPREAD NORTH AND COVERS OR
WILL SHORTLY COVER THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS OF KJCT AND KBBD. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
LIGHT NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 55 32 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 58 31 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 60 30 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 58 30 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 54 34 62 44 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 57 34 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 57 32 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...07
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