248
FXUS64 KSJT 151945
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
145 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
IN PLACE BY SUNDAY, AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD SETTLE IN ACROSS TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN THANKS TO SOME
PACIFIC-BASED MOISTURE RIDING ON THE 500MB FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER COULD EASILY GET
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD TOMORROW AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN. THIS SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 60S IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS, WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS, SET TO ENTER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED IN REACH INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH ON FRIDAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A DEEP AND
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY. HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS COLD SURFACE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHEAST, A SERIES OF
REINFORCING SURGES OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND KEEP COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S OR COLDER. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 24 TO 48 HOURS
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO
DROP INTO THE TEENS BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY TO NEAR 0
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW WERE ADDED TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK CLOSELY, AND
WILL BE LOOKING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 32 62 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 31 62 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 30 64 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 30 63 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 34 61 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 34 61 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 32 61 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK
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