817
FXUS64 KSJT 160444
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1044 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD SETTLE IN ACROSS TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN THANKS TO SOME
PACIFIC-BASED MOISTURE RIDING ON THE 500MB FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER COULD EASILY GET
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD TOMORROW AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN. THIS SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 60S IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS, WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT OR TWO, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST ITEM TO ADDRESS IS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF FAIRLY STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FRIDAY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS. INCREASED AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE AND LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS. WITH A MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA, COULD HAVE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. THESE INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO OR NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR HIGHS, WITH A FEW MID 70S POSSIBLE. ANTICIPATE A PRESENCE OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER, AND THIS COULD HAVE SOME LIMITING EFFECT ON THE
HIGHS.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW ITS
PASSAGE AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXTENT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME HAVE HIGHS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN MOST OF THE
BIG COUNTRY, TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WITH A 1050+MB
HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO MONTANA AND
WYOMING, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TO
POUR INTO OUR AREA IN THE EARLY WEEK TIME FRAME. DETAILS BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THE VERY COLD AIR,
WITH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES COLDER THAN THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. AT THIS TIME, CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST LOWS ARE 20-23 DEGREES SUNDAY AND IN THE TEENS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, INDICATIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
COULD LESSEN THE DIURNAL RANGE BY TUESDAY.
HAVING MENTIONED THESE CONSIDERATIONS, CANNOT RULE OUT A
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA, FOR A DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY, BUT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE GFS, WHICH
APPEARS TO ERODE THE COLD AIR TOO QUICKLY).
DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES, WHICH IS
FARTHER WEST WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS DIVING SOUTH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA, AND KEEPS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FARTHER WEST OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH POSSIBLE
WINTER PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, APPEARS THAT
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME, BUT ANY POPS ARE LOW/MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 32 62 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 31 62 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 30 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 30 63 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 34 61 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 34 61 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 32 61 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24
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