820
FXUS64 KSJT 161731
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
WE HAVE PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS
MORNING, TURNING OUR WINDS WESTERLY. AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALOFT, WE'LL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN AS A TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A LOW MOVES TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION, UPPER RIDGING, AND A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, PUTTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
TOWARDS OUR AREA, MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN ALOFT, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH WARMER, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS, WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS, SET TO ENTER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A
DEEP AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA AND
BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS COLD SURFACE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHEAST, A SERIES OF
REINFORCING SURGES OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND KEEP COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S OR COLDER. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 24 TO 48 HOURS BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO
DROP INTO THE TEENS BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY TO NEAR 0
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE YET TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SNOW IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK CLOSELY, AND WILL BE
LOOKING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 43 72 34 45 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 43 72 35 50 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 41 71 37 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 38 73 35 49 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 46 71 33 45 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 43 71 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 42 71 37 51 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK
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