758
FXUS64 KSJT 162038
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
238 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
CAUSE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS, ESPECIALLY AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PUSH AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS INTO THE AREA AND PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
70S IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW AN 850MB LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE AFTERNOON. BARRING ANY
REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE MORNING, THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD
MIX DOWN AND CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BE 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING STRONG WINDS LOOK
TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THIS AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT, MARKING THE LEADING
EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR, WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURS FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE BIG
COUNTRY, TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SUBSEQUENT MODEL AND HI-RES MODEL DATA TO SEE IF THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, VERY COLD/
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE POURING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS. THIS TO OCCUR WITH
A 1050MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH THIS SETUP, A
SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY
COLD AIR SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. BRISK NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM SUNDAY, EXPECT TO HAVE TEMPERATURES 20-23
DEGREES AND WIND CHILL VALUES 10-15 DEGREES.
THE VERY COLD AIR WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHTS, WITH FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS. DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS, WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
WIND CHILL READINGS TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES, SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE FEATURE WE WILL BE MONITORING
IS A DISTURBANCE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT, TO NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SQUEEZE OUT THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND BRING A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO OUR AREA. THE CURRENT
TIMING WITH THESE POPS IS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY, MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA AND LINGERING
TUESDAY MORNING OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WITH SUBSEQUENT AND ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO SOME EXTENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE CONSENSUS/BLENDED FORECAST KEEPS
THE DAILY HIGHS COLDER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED IN THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. A WEAKER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY,
BUT THIS WOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 43 72 34 45 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 43 72 35 50 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 41 71 37 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 38 73 35 49 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 46 71 33 45 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 43 71 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 42 71 37 51 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR COKE-FISHER-IRION-
JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...SK
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