535
FXUS64 KSJT 172019
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
219 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
TO 8 PM TONIGHT.
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PREVALENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 999MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. A CLOUD DECK THAT COVERED MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. AFTER IT PASSES, WINDS SHOULD TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AND
DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS. GIVEN A COLDER AIRMASS AND CLOUD-FREE
SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30S LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT A COLDER AIRMASS INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE ONLY ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
EXPECT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INITIAL STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND THE ARCTIC COLD
AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH AND DEEPEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
MAINLY MEDIUM CHANCES OF WIND CHILLS BEING LESS THAN 10 ABOVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. DRESS WARMLY, LIMIT YOUR TIME
OUTDOORS AND PROTECT PIPES, PETS, PEOPLE AND PLANTS!
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS. EXPECT COLD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. ALSO, GOING
WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, WATCHING AN ACTIVE JET STREAM
WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER A
VERY DRY AIRMASS(PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.20) WILL BE IN PLACE SO
WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS(GFS AND EC) ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW ONLY GOING WITH MAINLY LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF A CROSS
PLAINS TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
WILL WATCH CLOSELY(FUTURE MODELS OUTPUT) FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 35-40KT POSSIBLE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS DIMINISH AT THE SURFACE BUT WOULD REMAIN
40-45KT AROUND 2000FT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TURN OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNRISE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 34 46 22 35 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 36 52 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 36 58 23 41 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 34 49 22 38 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 33 45 22 35 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 39 58 24 39 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 37 51 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-IRION-
JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...SK
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