264
FXUS64 KSJT 172347
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
547 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY
TO 8 PM TONIGHT.
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PREVALENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 999MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. A CLOUD DECK THAT COVERED MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. AFTER IT PASSES, WINDS SHOULD TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AND
DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS. GIVEN A COLDER AIRMASS AND CLOUD-FREE
SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30S LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT A COLDER AIRMASS INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE ONLY ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 50S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THERE'S TWO THINGS TO NOTE ABOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, WHICH ARE:
1.) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2.) THERE'S A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING THE FIRST HIGHLIGHT (#1), OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL HOURS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 7 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE COLD
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH. THESE ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST ARE THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH.
WITH RESPECT TO HIGHLIGHT (#2), WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE LIMITED LARGELY DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS THAT MOVES
IN. OUR MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE
WHICH WILL LIMIT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, WE WILL
CONTINUE MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR CHANGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY ONWARD), HIGHS WILL WARM
QUITE A BIT AND SETTLE INTO THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE
IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR KABI AND KSJT WHERE GUSTS TO 35 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z. SOME BLOWING DUST WILL AFFECT BOTH OF
THESE TERMINALS THROUGH MID EVENING, WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 3SM.
WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS BY MID EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS 10 TO 12 KNOTS FOLLOWING
FROPA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LLWS AT KJCT AND KSOA PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT AND A 45 KNOT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. EXPECT LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT THE TERMINALS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 34 46 22 35 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 36 52 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 36 58 23 41 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 34 49 22 38 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 33 45 22 35 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 39 58 24 39 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 37 51 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-IRION-
JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24
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