183
FXUS64 KSJT 181729
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1129 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW HAS STARTED TO TAKE OVER WITH THE PASSING
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S NORTH OF I-10, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-10 TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
TONIGHT, RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
WILL CAUSE THESE COLD TEMPERATURES TO FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
EXPECT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACT INTO THE AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ARCTIC
COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH AND DEEPEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO A FEW LOWER
40S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THERE
ARE MAINLY MEDIUM CHANCES OF WIND CHILLS BEING LESS THAN 10 ABOVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. DRESS WARMLY, LIMIT YOUR TIME
OUTDOORS AND PROTECT PIPES, PETS, PEOPLE AND PLANTS!
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS. STILL COLD AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. ALSO, GOING WITH
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, WATCHING AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WITH A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER A VERY DRY
AIRMASS(PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.40) WILL BE IN PLACE SO WILL BE TOUGH
TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. SOME MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS(GFS AND
EC) AND ALSO OPERATIONAL ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA. FOR NOW ONLY GOING WITH A LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW FOR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF A THROCKMORTON TO BALLINGER
TO SONORA LINE. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. HOWEVER, WILL WATCH
CLOSELY(FUTURE MODELS OUTPUT) FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME NORTHERLY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 21 36 18 35 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 22 38 18 39 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 21 41 15 40 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 20 38 15 37 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 21 35 19 35 / 10 0 0 0
OZONA 23 40 19 40 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 22 38 17 37 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...41
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