580
FXUS64 KSJT 182358
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
558 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE HILL COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT,
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT A BRIEF AREA OF
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IF THIS CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES, WE MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS, LOWS IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 3 DEGREES
WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD START OFF WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE ON MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY, WHILE A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A
MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER- LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
SNOW, DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING UP TO AROUND 10,000FT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW RANGE FROM 20-50 PERCENT AND FAVOR AN AREA FROM
THE THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR NOW, WE ARE SHOWING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
OVER PARTS OF KIMBLE, MASON, AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THIS
COULD CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO THIS IS NOT
SET IN STONE. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES ON TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER PLUS ACCUMULATED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
FREEZING DURING THE DAY.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
WARM BACK UP TO THE 50S AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS RETREATS TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS GETS ERODED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTH AT THE MOMENT AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING, INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 21 35 18 36 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 22 37 18 41 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 21 40 15 41 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 20 37 15 37 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 21 34 19 36 / 10 0 0 0
OZONA 23 39 19 41 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 22 37 17 37 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20
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