093
FXUS64 KSJT 200420
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1020 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND LINGERING TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SO FAR (AS OF 2 PM) HAVE ONLY RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE
30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE. WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS 2 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST YET AGAIN. FOR TOMORROW, SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
HEADLINE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE, WHILE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER- LEVEL JET. THESE FACTORS, COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, SHOULD LEAD TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAVOR SNOW, DUE TO A NOTABLE INVERSION AND THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BELOW FREEZING WITH SATURATION UP TO AROUND 700MB. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT
AND FAVOR AN AREA FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR NOW, WE ARE
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET OVER PARTS OF KIMBLE, MASON, MCCULLOCH, MENARD, AND SAN
SABA COUNTIES. THUS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA AS ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. AREAS FURTHER
NORTH COULD SEE ONLY FLURRIES TO PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW.
HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO
THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THIS
SYSTEM PASSES ON TUESDAY AND ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER, PLUS
ACCUMULATED WINTRY PRECIPITATION, COULD EASILY HOLD TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR FREEZING DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE HILL COUNTRY ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE ROAD CONDITIONS
TO BECOME SLICK.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
WARM BACK UP TO THE 50S AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS RETREATS TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING
THIS TIME WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS GETS ERODED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, WITH
SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WITH SOME CIGS NEARING
MVFR HEIGHTS AT KJCT AND KSOA. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING, SHIFTING TO
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INCREASING A
FEW KNOTS. AFTER 00Z TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 18 37 18 37 / 0 10 20 0
SAN ANGELO 17 41 20 37 / 0 0 20 0
JUNCTION 15 43 18 38 / 0 0 60 0
BROWNWOOD 15 38 19 37 / 0 10 40 0
SWEETWATER 18 37 17 37 / 0 10 10 0
OZONA 19 43 20 37 / 0 0 20 0
BRADY 16 38 20 35 / 0 0 50 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20
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