287
FXUS64 KSJT 160911
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..MUCH COLDER TONIGHT
STRONG WEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT, LOCATED NEAR
ANSON AND ALBANY AT 2 PM. MOST PEAK WIND SPEEDS IN WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THERE WAS 61 MPH WIND GUST
RECORDED AT ABILENE REGIONAL AIRPORT AT 107 PM, BUT IT DOESN'T
APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. THE WEST TEXAS
MESONET 3 NORTHEAST ABILENE HAD A PEAK WIND OF 39 MPH.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SWEETWATER AND ABILENE 4 OR 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD PICK UP
SPEED MOVING ALONG AN SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE AROUND 7 PM AND
ALONG I-10 9-10 PM. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN TO 32 DEGREES IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME SITES RECORDING LIGHT SNOW, AND WHILE WINDS
WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH WILL KEEP MONDAY COOLER DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE BIG COUNTRY TO 50 TO 55 IN THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND I-10 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD START OFF RATHER MILD AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION. ALL EYES, HOWEVER, ARE ON THE PATTERN CHANGE
FOR MIDWEEK. A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS, CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD ENHANCE SOME LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY, WITH A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. FOR NOW, CHANCES ARE
NEAR ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A STRONG 1045MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
STEADY NORTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO
GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER A THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW OF WELL-
BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD
START TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES.
HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY COULD HAMPER THE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THEN DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 47 30 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 51 30 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 55 27 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 48 25 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 48 31 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 53 31 61 43 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 49 28 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24
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