942
FXUS64 KSJT 161733
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AFTER YESTERDAY'S FRONT, WE'LL SEE COOLER AND CALMER WEATHER TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20+ DEGREES COOLER TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AS WE GO
INTO THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST,
TURNING SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD AGAIN OVERNIGHT, DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
BY TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD START OFF RATHER MILD AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION. ALL EYES, HOWEVER, ARE ON THE PATTERN CHANGE
FOR MIDWEEK. A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS, CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD ENHANCE SOME LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY, WITH A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. FOR NOW, CHANCES ARE
NEAR ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A STRONG 1045MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
STEADY NORTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO
GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER A THIRD NIGHT IN A ROW OF WELL-
BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD
START TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES.
HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY COULD HAMPER THE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THEN DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR OTHERWISE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 47 30 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 51 30 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 55 27 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 48 25 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 48 31 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 53 31 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 49 28 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04
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