892
FXUS64 KSJT 162036
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
236 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AFTER YESTERDAY'S FRONT, WE'LL SEE COOLER AND CALMER WEATHER TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20+ DEGREES COOLER TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AS WE GO
INTO THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST,
TURNING SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD AGAIN OVERNIGHT, DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
BY TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, MAKING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST A BIGGER PROBLEM. SOME OF THE MODELS NOW DELAY THE FRONT
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR PRE FRONTAL WARMING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CAUTIOUS THAN
THIS, BUT DID PUSH HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SAN ANGELO TO BRADY
SOUTHWARD. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO SHIFT IN
FRONTAL TIMING MAY END UP AS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN
ACTUAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS QUICKLY DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, AND THEN DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONE THING A DELAYED FRONT MAY DO IS KEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENTS UP THROUGH SUNRISE WHICH INCREASES WIND SPEEDS
ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN EVEN MORE. WIND CHILL READINGS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THIS IS RIGHT AT EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE
AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH AREAWIDE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
STILL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE
TO SHOW HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
AND NOT MUCH ABOVE IT FARTHER SOUTH, AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER ON THURSDAY. COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
MORNING WHERE LIGHTER WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
REMARKABLY ENOUGH, WARMING TREND STARTS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SUNDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THEN DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR OTHERWISE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 30 64 46 48 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 30 64 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 26 65 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 26 63 44 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 30 64 44 45 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 31 60 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 28 64 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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