354
FXUS64 KSJT 162038
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
238 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..COLD TONIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND MONDAY
TEMPERATURES DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREE ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOW LYING AND PROTECTED
AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, REBOUND BACK
TO HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S MONDAY, AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS, AND BRINGS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, MAKING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST A BIGGER PROBLEM. SOME OF THE MODELS NOW DELAY THE FRONT
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR PRE FRONTAL WARMING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CAUTIOUS THAN
THIS, BUT DID PUSH HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SAN ANGELO TO BRADY
SOUTHWARD. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO SHIFT IN
FRONTAL TIMING MAY END UP AS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN
ACTUAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS QUICKLY DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, AND THEN DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONE THING A DELAYED FRONT MAY DO IS KEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENTS UP THROUGH SUNRISE WHICH INCREASES WIND SPEEDS
ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN EVEN MORE. WIND CHILL READINGS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THIS IS RIGHT AT EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE
AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH AREAWIDE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
STILL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE
TO SHOW HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
AND NOT MUCH ABOVE IT FARTHER SOUTH, AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER ON THURSDAY. COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
MORNING WHERE LIGHTER WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
REMARKABLY ENOUGH, WARMING TREND STARTS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SUNDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THEN DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR OTHERWISE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 30 64 46 48 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 30 64 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 26 65 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 26 63 44 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 30 64 44 45 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 31 60 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 28 64 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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