450
FXUS64 KSJT 170905
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
305 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH FROM THE SOUTH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN THE LATE EVENING,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, PUTTING THEM AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HIGHER
DEWPOINTS, AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER,
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, MAKING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST A BIGGER PROBLEM. SOME OF THE MODELS NOW DELAY THE FRONT
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR PRE FRONTAL WARMING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CAUTIOUS THAN
THIS, BUT DID PUSH HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SAN ANGELO TO BRADY
SOUTHWARD. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO SHIFT IN
FRONTAL TIMING MAY END UP AS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN
ACTUAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS QUICKLY DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, AND THEN DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONE THING A DELAYED FRONT MAY DO IS KEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENTS UP THROUGH SUNRISE WHICH INCREASES WIND SPEEDS
ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN EVEN MORE. WIND CHILL READINGS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THIS IS RIGHT AT EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE
AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH AREAWIDE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
STILL COLD ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE
TO SHOW HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
AND NOT MUCH ABOVE IT FARTHER SOUTH, AND ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER ON THURSDAY. COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
MORNING WHERE LIGHTER WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
REMARKABLY ENOUGH, WARMING TREND STARTS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BY
SUNDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO STEADILY
DECREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 47 54 11 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 64 47 66 14 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 64 47 76 17 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 61 46 65 13 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 64 44 48 11 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 60 45 73 17 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 63 49 70 16 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...DANIELS
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