155
FXUS64 KSJT 170923
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
323 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH FROM THE SOUTH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN THE LATE EVENING,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, PUTTING THEM AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HIGHER
DEWPOINTS, AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER,
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE FOR
MIDWEEK. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD ENHANCE SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SUBFREEZING LAYER DEVELOPS WITH A LAYER OF
MOISTURE UP TO THE 850MB LEVEL. GIVEN THE SETUP, THERE IS A LOW (20-
30%) CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A STRONG 1045MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A COLD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT,
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, STEADY NORTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. AFTER A THIRD
NIGHT IN A ROW OF WELL-BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, THE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD START TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY COULD HAMPER
THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AT FIRST. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 911 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS, BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO STEADILY
DECREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 47 54 11 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 64 47 66 14 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 64 47 76 17 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 61 46 65 13 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 64 44 48 11 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 60 45 73 17 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 63 49 70 16 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...DANIELS
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