076
FXUS64 KSJT 180505
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1105 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. NEAR-RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING,
FILTERING IN SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW BECOME MORE
COMPLICATED AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY BARELY MAKE IT INTO THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S, WHEREAS SOUTH OF A STERLING CITY TO COLEMAN LINE,
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AREA WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TUESDAY EVENING, THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. THE BRISK
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 5 TO MINUS 10
DEGREE RANGE. EVEN THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STAY JUST ABOVE
CRITERIA, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WAS ISSUED (REPLACING THE
EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH) FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE, POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z HRRR, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE 12Z NAM NEST, ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ONLY A
TRACE TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED, BUT EVEN A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE IMPACTS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SOLUTION, SO FOR NOW WE ARE
CONTINUING A DRY FORECAST, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT MIGHT NEED
TO BE ADDED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS, BUT A VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY
AND IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
A SLOW WARM UP IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 50S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND KBBD LATE TONIGHT, FALLING TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY/MID MORNING, WITH KABI
FALLING TO IFR CEILINGS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS
SHIFTING NORTH. KSJT MAY ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN JUST
AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE RISING TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING. KSJT AND
KBBD SHOULD SEE THE FRONT A LITTLE EARLIER WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTH 16-17Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING, WHICH
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 43 53 11 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 64 47 64 15 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 64 46 76 18 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 61 45 64 13 / 0 0 10 0
SWEETWATER 64 40 46 10 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 60 45 71 18 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 63 48 69 17 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...04
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