816
FXUS64 KSJT 180947
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. NEAR-
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THE ANTICIPATED STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH GUSTING OVER 30.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING,
REACHING I-20 BY 9AM, THE CONCHO VALLEY BY NOON, THEN I-10 CORRIDOR
BY 3PM. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP BY
TEN DEGREES OR MORE WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. A STOUT POST-
FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING
AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS THERE. A PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE COULD ENHANCE LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. THERMAL
PROFILES OVER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES SHOW A SMALL WARM
NOSE ABOVE A SUBFREEZING LAYER BELOW 850MB WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING TO
FREEZING, THE GROUND WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATING ICE, OTHER THAN ON BRIDGES OR A FEW ELEVATED SURFACES.
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO PREVENT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
FROM TAKING PLACE. REGARDLESS, ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END
BY NOONTIME TODAY AS MID-LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MOVES EASTWARD. BY
TONIGHT, THE STEADY NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH BITTERLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND IN THE TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. PERSISTENT
WINDS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS RANGING FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TUESDAY EVENING, THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. THE BRISK
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 5 TO MINUS 10
DEGREE RANGE. EVEN THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STAY JUST ABOVE
CRITERIA, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WAS ISSUED (REPLACING THE
EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH) FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE, POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z HRRR, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE 12Z NAM NEST, ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ONLY A
TRACE TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED, BUT EVEN A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE IMPACTS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SOLUTION, SO FOR NOW WE ARE
CONTINUING A DRY FORECAST, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT MIGHT NEED
TO BE ADDED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS, BUT A VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY
AND IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
A SLOW WARM UP IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 50S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND KBBD LATE TONIGHT, FALLING TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY/MID MORNING, WITH KABI
FALLING TO IFR CEILINGS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS
SHIFTING NORTH. KSJT MAY ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN JUST
AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE RISING TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING. KSJT AND
KBBD SHOULD SEE THE FRONT A LITTLE EARLIER WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTH 16-17Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING, WHICH
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 44 10 25 9 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 52 14 32 12 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 65 16 37 13 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 53 12 28 11 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 38 9 25 10 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 63 17 36 15 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 57 15 32 13 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...04
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