914
FXUS64 KSJT 181139
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
539 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. NEAR-
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THE ANTICIPATED STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH GUSTING OVER 30.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING,
REACHING I-20 BY 9AM, THE CONCHO VALLEY BY NOON, THEN I-10 CORRIDOR
BY 3PM. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP BY
TEN DEGREES OR MORE WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. A STOUT POST-
FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING
AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS THERE. A PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE COULD ENHANCE LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. THERMAL
PROFILES OVER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES SHOW A SMALL WARM
NOSE ABOVE A SUBFREEZING LAYER BELOW 850MB WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR SLEET AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING TO
FREEZING, THE GROUND WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATING ICE, OTHER THAN ON BRIDGES OR A FEW ELEVATED SURFACES.
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO PREVENT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
FROM TAKING PLACE. REGARDLESS, ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END
BY NOONTIME TODAY AS MID-LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MOVES EASTWARD. BY
TONIGHT, THE STEADY NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH BITTERLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND IN THE TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. PERSISTENT
WINDS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS RANGING FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF VERY COLD. AS MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, THE FRONT TODAY WILL BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.
THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS MEANS WIND CHILLS WILL PEAK IN THE TEENS FOR
THE BIG COUNTRY AND IN THE 20S SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE BROKEN IN ABILENE (RECORD:32 FORECAST:25) AND WILL
POTENTIALLY BE BROKEN IN SAN ANGELO (RECORD:32 FORECAST:32)
ON THURSDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE WEAKER KEEPING WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 AND IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20. RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AND RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY ON THURSDAY FOR SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE.
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER, PUTTING THEM IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL DAMPEN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SPREAD, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH FRIDAY'S
HIGHS FORECAST TO JUMP ABOVE FREEZING, THIS WILL LIKELY END THE BIG
COUNTRIES ROUGHLY 72 HOUR PERIOD BELOW FREEZING.
WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THE LOW
80S FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND KBBD LATE TONIGHT, FALLING TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY/MID MORNING, WITH KABI
FALLING TO IFR CEILINGS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS
SHIFTING NORTH. KSJT MAY ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN JUST
AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE RISING TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING. KSJT AND
KBBD SHOULD SEE THE FRONT A LITTLE EARLIER WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTH 16-17Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING, WHICH
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND
SHIFTS TO OCCUR AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 44 10 25 9 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 52 14 32 12 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 65 16 37 13 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 53 12 28 11 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 38 9 25 10 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 63 17 36 15 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 57 15 32 13 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK
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