151
FXUS64 KSJT 181916
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
116 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025.
...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION, TO AS LOW AS
10 BELOW IN THE BIG COUNTRY...
THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, EXITING SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR BY 3PM THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY STARTED
TO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALSO HINDERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SURPASSING THE 50S TODAY, AND WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, A BITTERLY COLD AIR
MASS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THESE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TODAY THROUGH
NOON ON THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH AREAS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE MID 30S. HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY VARY SLIGHTLY, DEPENDENT ON IF CLOUD COVER
LINGERS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OR DISSIPATES EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF VERY COLD. AS MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, THE FRONT TODAY WILL BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.
THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS MEANS WIND CHILLS WILL PEAK IN THE TEENS FOR
THE BIG COUNTRY AND IN THE 20S SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE BROKEN IN ABILENE (RECORD:32 FORECAST:25) AND WILL
POTENTIALLY BE BROKEN IN SAN ANGELO (RECORD:32 FORECAST:32)
ON THURSDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE WEAKER KEEPING WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 AND IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20. RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AND RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY ON THURSDAY FOR SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE.
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER, PUTTING THEM IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL DAMPEN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SPREAD, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH FRIDAY'S
HIGHS FORECAST TO JUMP ABOVE FREEZING, THIS WILL LIKELY END THE BIG
COUNTRIES ROUGHLY 72 HOUR PERIOD BELOW FREEZING.
WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THE LOW
80S FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION, LEAVING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IN
ITS WAKE GENERALLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME TERMINALS
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS,
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT IF WINDS STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MASS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION, TYPICALLY WINDS
HAVE AN EASIER TIME MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 9 26 10 33 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 13 31 12 37 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 16 35 13 41 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 12 27 10 34 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 9 25 9 33 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 16 34 15 40 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 14 30 13 36 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...TP
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