262
FXUS64 KSJT 190447
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1047 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025.
...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION, TO AS LOW AS
10 BELOW IN THE BIG COUNTRY...
THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, EXITING SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR BY 3PM THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY STARTED
TO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALSO HINDERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SURPASSING THE 50S TODAY, AND WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, A BITTERLY COLD AIR
MASS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THESE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TODAY THROUGH
NOON ON THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH AREAS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE MID 30S. HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY VARY SLIGHTLY, DEPENDENT ON IF CLOUD COVER
LINGERS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OR DISSIPATES EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS OF 10 DEGREES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO -10 DEGREES. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY AS
A RESULT.
WITH REGARDS TO THE TEMPERATURES, SOME RECORDS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. ON THURSDAY, ABILENE'S RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
OF 16 DEGREES MAY BE BROKEN AS THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR A
LOW OF 10 DEGREES. ALSO ON THURSDAY, SAN ANGELO'S RECORD LOW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES MAY BE BROKEN AS THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR A LOW OF 13 DEGREES.
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE ARE GOING TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THIS WILL REMOVE ANY CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE PROLONGED, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE, LOOKING AHEAD, SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MIST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS GRADAULLY RISE TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 9 26 8 32 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 13 31 11 36 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 16 35 12 41 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 12 27 9 34 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 9 25 8 32 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 16 34 14 40 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 14 30 11 35 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...42
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