580
FXUS64 KSJT 201938
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
138 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND LATE
TONIGHT.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE BITTER COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AS A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS WITH
NORTHEAST WIND OF 10-15 MPH. RESULTING WIND CHILLS RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 BELOW TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO. THE COLD WIND CHILLS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SOME WARMING OCCURS. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING SHOULD EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY AS CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BUT WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO
5-10 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS, DUE
TO A STOUT INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS, WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SUNSHINE SHOULD START TO ERODE THE COLD AIRMASS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, LOOK TO DROP INTO
THE MID TEENS AGAIN WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 ABOVE. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS, PEOPLE OUTSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS AND DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE COLD WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY, AND QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES
AND POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH PER
SATELLITE AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS AS OF 17Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
NEGATIVELY AFFECT KJCT, KSJT, AND KSOA. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW
FAR NORTH THESE CEILINGS WILL SPREAD. MODELS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
THE SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE OPTED TO LINGER THE MVFR
CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER THAN THE MODELS GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
ON SATELLITE. A BREAKUP OF THIS CLOUD BANK SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 18 40 23 52 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 19 41 26 49 / 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 19 41 27 49 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 17 38 25 48 / 0 0 0 10
SWEETWATER 16 40 24 52 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 21 44 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 19 37 28 45 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...41
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