473
FXUS64 KSJT 260736
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
236 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND INCREASING
MOISTURE(PWS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT. GOING WITH
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS(LIKELY) ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT, WITH THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST OF COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE ANY DEVELOPING FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH TEXAS SLOWLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW, A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A BROWNWOOD TO
ABILENE LINE. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AVERAGING AROUND 1 INCH, AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION AT
SOME POINT BETWEEN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER
CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000
J/KG. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HAIL UP TO AN INCH, AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE 70S) WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A LOW
TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW HI-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW FOR ADDING THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 60 72 57 / 10 20 80 50
SAN ANGELO 84 58 69 54 / 20 50 80 60
JUNCTION 81 57 69 56 / 50 70 100 70
BROWNWOOD 85 58 69 54 / 10 30 90 70
SWEETWATER 85 60 72 56 / 10 20 60 40
OZONA 79 58 70 55 / 40 60 80 60
BRADY 82 59 65 57 / 20 50 90 70
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21
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