093
FXUS64 KSJT 262352
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
652 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND INCREASING
MOISTURE(PWS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT. GOING WITH
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS(LIKELY) ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT, WITH THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST OF COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE ANY DEVELOPING FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NW HILL COUNTRY HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND RAIN CHANCES, WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4
INCH. AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL SEE
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS OF 1/10 INCH OR LESS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
SATURDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS, BRINGING DRY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, MAINLY FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY. USED THE NBM MODEL 75 PERCENT FOR WINDS, AS GFS 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 KTS 1 PM SATURDAY TO 30 KTS AT 7 PM IN THE
BIG COUNTRY. THE 850 WINDS TENDS TO APPROXIMATE THE WIND GUSTS IN
A STRONGLY MIXED ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAYTIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70 TO LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK POOR, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STORMS
AND NOT MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EITHER. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE MID WEEK, BUT LACK OF AN STORM SYSTEM (AND
UPPER RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS) KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT, THEN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FOR THIS EVENING, ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND PROB30
GROUPS FOR THE TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRATUS SHOULD LINGER
ALL DAY TOMORROW, WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 60 71 56 80 / 10 60 60 30
SAN ANGELO 57 69 55 82 / 40 90 60 20
JUNCTION 57 67 56 81 / 70 90 70 40
BROWNWOOD 58 68 54 78 / 20 80 70 50
SWEETWATER 60 71 56 82 / 20 60 50 20
OZONA 57 67 56 81 / 70 80 60 10
BRADY 59 65 56 79 / 60 90 70 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24
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