260
FXUS64 KSJT 270452
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THIS
WAVE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL FEED AN AIRMASS WITH 50-60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY NORTHWARD TO THE BIG COUNTRY
AS CAPE VALUES REACH 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, IN CONCERT WITH
ANY HEATING THAT OCCURS, COULD INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WIND OR HAIL ARE NOT HIGH DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR. STORM CHANCES
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HEATING DECREASES. THE MAIN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE BY
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL APPEAR TO
BE FOCUSED AGAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR TOMORROW
WHERE SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE AND WHERE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR FURTHER NORTH OVER
THE CONCHO VALLEY, BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE SHEAR IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER,
THESE COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES
WILL BE IN THE 1.2-1.4 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW, WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS START TO ACCUMULATE IN ANY FLOOD-PRONE AREAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NW HILL COUNTRY HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND RAIN CHANCES, WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4
INCH. AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL SEE
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS OF 1/10 INCH OR LESS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
SATURDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS, BRINGING DRY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, MAINLY FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY. USED THE NBM MODEL 75 PERCENT FOR WINDS, AS GFS 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 KTS 1 PM SATURDAY TO 30 KTS AT 7 PM IN THE
BIG COUNTRY. THE 850 WINDS TENDS TO APPROXIMATE THE WIND GUSTS IN
A STRONGLY MIXED ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAYTIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70 TO LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK POOR, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STORMS
AND NOT MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EITHER. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE MID WEEK, BUT LACK OF AN STORM SYSTEM (AND
UPPER RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS) KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT, THEN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THE TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRATUS SHOULD LINGER ALL
DAY TOMORROW, WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 60 71 56 78 / 10 60 60 40
SAN ANGELO 57 69 55 78 / 40 90 60 30
JUNCTION 57 67 56 79 / 70 90 70 60
BROWNWOOD 57 69 54 76 / 20 80 70 60
SWEETWATER 60 71 56 80 / 20 60 50 30
OZONA 57 67 56 78 / 70 80 60 20
BRADY 59 66 56 76 / 60 90 70 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21
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