058
FXUS64 KSJT 270744
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
244 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND INCREASING MOISTURE(PWS OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GOING WITH
MODERATE TO VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LOCALIZED 1+ INCH AMOUNTS WHERE
MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW BUT NON ZERO, AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO, A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL(QUARTER SIZE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NW HILL COUNTRY HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND RAIN CHANCES, WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4
INCH. AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL SEE
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS OF 1/10 INCH OR LESS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
SATURDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS, BRINGING DRY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, MAINLY FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY. USED THE NBM MODEL 75 PERCENT FOR WINDS, AS GFS 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 KTS 1 PM SATURDAY TO 30 KTS AT 7 PM IN THE
BIG COUNTRY. THE 850 WINDS TENDS TO APPROXIMATE THE WIND GUSTS IN
A STRONGLY MIXED ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAYTIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70 TO LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK POOR, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR STORMS
AND NOT MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EITHER. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE MID WEEK, BUT LACK OF AN STORM SYSTEM (AND
UPPER RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS) KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT, THEN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THE TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRATUS SHOULD LINGER ALL
DAY TOMORROW, WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 58 78 60 / 40 50 40 0
SAN ANGELO 72 56 78 59 / 70 60 30 0
JUNCTION 69 56 79 57 / 90 70 60 0
BROWNWOOD 73 55 76 57 / 60 70 60 0
SWEETWATER 75 57 80 60 / 50 40 30 0
OZONA 68 57 78 59 / 80 70 20 0
BRADY 68 57 76 59 / 80 70 60 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21
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