006
FXUS64 KSJT 271115
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND INCREASING MOISTURE(PWS OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GOING WITH
MODERATE TO VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LOCALIZED 1+ INCH AMOUNTS WHERE
MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW BUT NON ZERO, AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO, A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL(QUARTER SIZE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUT SURELY TRACK
EASTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME
WEAK RIDGING AND ZONAL LOW BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL HELP
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S, AND INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND
EASTWARD OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL RAISE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT REMAIN SLIM TO NONE, GIVEN THE LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
EXPECT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCLUDE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL WATCH
RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD LINGER TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT THE KABI
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 58 78 60 / 40 50 40 0
SAN ANGELO 72 56 78 59 / 70 60 30 0
JUNCTION 69 56 79 57 / 90 70 60 0
BROWNWOOD 73 55 76 57 / 60 70 60 0
SWEETWATER 75 57 80 60 / 50 40 30 0
OZONA 70 57 78 59 / 80 70 20 0
BRADY 68 57 76 59 / 80 70 60 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21
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