470
FXUS64 KSJT 271858
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
158 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND INCREASING MOISTURE(PWS OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GOING WITH
MODERATE TO VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LOCALIZED 1+ INCH AMOUNTS WHERE
MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW BUT NON ZERO, AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO, A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL(QUARTER SIZE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK, AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, BUT COULD SEE SOME RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING WITH
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SOME LOCALIZED REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 58 79 60 92 / 30 30 0 0
SAN ANGELO 56 81 59 91 / 30 20 0 0
JUNCTION 56 79 57 89 / 40 40 0 0
BROWNWOOD 55 76 57 91 / 60 60 0 0
SWEETWATER 57 81 61 92 / 20 10 0 0
OZONA 57 79 59 88 / 30 10 0 0
BRADY 57 77 59 90 / 40 40 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK
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