697
FXUS64 KSJT 272346 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
646 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MAINLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING, BUT OVERALL, THIS WAVE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE FAIRLY WEAK,
RESULTING IN FAR LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED.
WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S
WITH NOT A LOT OF MIC-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO SONORA THROUGH
TOMORROW. DOWNWARD MOTION FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER RAIN CHANCES WEST
OF THIS LINE. DESPITE THIS, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK, AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, BUT COULD SEE SOME RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KBBD EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF CROCKETT COUNTY WERE DEVELOPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KSJT.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KSOA INITIALLY. OTHERWISE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, WITH LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS, AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS 3-5 MILES. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
WILL DISSIPATE. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE
IN THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING. BY 17-19Z, CEILINGS CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT
AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM
THE WEST IN THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 58 79 60 92 / 30 30 0 0
SAN ANGELO 56 81 59 91 / 30 20 0 0
JUNCTION 56 79 57 89 / 40 40 0 0
BROWNWOOD 55 76 57 91 / 60 60 0 0
SWEETWATER 57 81 61 92 / 20 10 0 0
OZONA 57 79 59 88 / 30 10 0 0
BRADY 57 77 59 90 / 40 40 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19
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