945
FXUS64 KSJT 280537
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MAINLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING, BUT OVERALL, THIS WAVE HAS TURNED OUT TO BE FAIRLY WEAK,
RESULTING IN FAR LESS COVERAGE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED.
WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S
WITH NOT A LOT OF MIC-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO SONORA THROUGH
TOMORROW. DOWNWARD MOTION FROM NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER RAIN CHANCES WEST
OF THIS LINE. DESPITE THIS, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK, AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, BUT COULD SEE SOME RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND
BRINGING MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO OUR
SOUTHERN 3 TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WHEN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGIN TO
LIFT. CLOUD CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS OF GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 60 93 63 86 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 59 91 60 87 / 0 0 20 0
JUNCTION 57 90 60 90 / 0 0 20 10
BROWNWOOD 57 91 61 89 / 0 10 20 10
SWEETWATER 61 92 61 85 / 0 0 10 0
OZONA 59 88 61 86 / 0 0 20 0
BRADY 59 90 63 89 / 0 10 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...TP
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